You’ve heard the talk about "routine" mid-term elections before, but the three votes scheduled for April 13 aren’t just a formality. This isn't just about filling empty chairs in Ottawa. We’re looking at a scenario where Prime Minister Mark Carney could officially tip his minority government into majority territory.
That changes everything. In a minority, you’re always one bad day away from a collapsed government. In a majority, you hold the remote.
Right now, the Liberals are sitting at 170 seats. They need 172 for a majority in the 343-seat House of Commons. These three races—Scarborough Southwest, University—Rosedale, and Terrebonne—are the difference between a government that has to beg for NDP or Bloc support and one that can steamroll its own agenda.
The math of a razor thin majority
Let’s be real about the numbers. If the Liberals sweep all three, they hit 173. That sounds comfortable until you remember the Speaker, Francis Scarpaleggia, only votes to break a tie. Effectively, a 172-seat government is still living on a knife's edge. They’d need every single MP to show up for every single vote, or they’d need to keep poaching opposition members.
Carney has already been aggressive with this. We’ve seen floor-crossers like Chris d’Entremont and Matt Jeneroux jump ship from the Conservatives. Even the NDP lost Lori Idlout to the Liberal bench recently. This "government by recruitment" is basically unheard of in Canadian history, and it’s a big part of why these three seats are so critical.
Where the battle is actually being fought
The Liberals are looking at two "safe" bets and one absolute nightmare in Quebec.
Scarborough Southwest
This was Bill Blair's seat for years. He’s gone off to London as Canada’s High Commissioner, and now Doly Begum—a former Ontario NDP MPP—is trying to snag it for the Liberals. The NDP is running Fatima Shaban here again. She lost to Blair in 2025, but she’s hoping the Liberal transition to Carney’s leadership has left a gap she can exploit. Honestly, it’s a Liberal stronghold, but a loss here would be a massive "wait a minute" moment for the Carney government.
University—Rosedale
This is the downtown Toronto elite seat. It was Chrystia Freeland’s. She’s moved on to roles at the Rhodes Trust and as an advisor to Ukraine's president. The Liberals are putting up Dr. Danielle Martin, a physician and well-known healthcare advocate. Serena Purdy is the NDP challenger. On paper, this is as Liberal as a red tie at a gala. But if voter turnout is low, or if people are tired of "downtown politics," things can get weird.
Terrebonne
This is the one to watch. If you like political drama, this is your seat. In the 2025 election, the Liberals won by one single vote. One.
Then we found out Elections Canada messed up the return address on some mail-in ballots, which meant those votes were never even counted. The Supreme Court tossed the result in February, so we’re re-running the race. Tatiana Auguste (Liberal) is going up against Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné (Bloc Québécois). Polling aggregator 338 Canada has this as a pure toss-up. If Carney loses Terrebonne, he’s still in minority territory, even if he holds the two Toronto ridings.
Why these byelections are different this time
Usually, byelections are where people "send a message" to the government. They’re a way to complain about the price of gas without actually toppling the leader. This time, though, it’s about the mandate.
Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are currently sitting at 141 seats. They’ve been loud about Carney’s floor-crossing tactics, calling them "shady backroom deals." They’re right to be worried. If the Liberals clinch a majority through these byelections, Poilievre loses his leverage on committees and his ability to trigger an early election.
The stakes for the NDP are just as high. Their bench has dwindled to only six seats after floor-crossings. If they lose Scarborough Southwest or University—Rosedale by a wide margin, it signals they’re effectively irrelevant in the urban centers they used to count on.
What you need to do next
If you're a voter in one of these three ridings, you're essentially deciding the fate of the 45th Parliament. You can check your registration status at Elections Canada online. Advance voting starts April 3, with the main election day on April 13.
For the rest of us watching from the sidelines, keep an eye on the results from Terrebonne first. That’s the seat that will tell us if the Liberals are on a path to a long-term majority or if they’re just treading water. If the Bloc holds Terrebonne, Carney's majority dreams stay on hold until the next general election. It’s that simple.
April 13 is going to be a long night for everyone on Parliament Hill. Don't believe anyone who tells you these results are a foregone conclusion. They aren't.
